The return of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from 15 years of exile has been often promised, and always hotly anticipated.

He is one of the most divisive figures in Thai history. The brash, politically-ambitious tycoon repeated successes in elections going back more than two decades provoked strong reactions from conservative forces - ranging from military coups, the occupations of government ministries and airports, to contentious court verdicts which have sacked three prime ministers and dissolved three pro-Thaksin political parties.

Now he is back, presumably after striking a quiet deal with his royalist adversaries to keep him out of prison. He has sentences of about 10 years outstanding from criminal cases he says were politically motivated.

He is expected to be whisked straight from the Don Mueang Airport to the Supreme Court in Bangkok, and from there probably to spend the night in a prison hospital. No-one expects him to stay in custody long.